Indonesia Macro Watch : 
Strong 4Q GDP, Resilient Growth Outlook

Announced: 4Q GDP
Actual: +6.9%; Previous: +5.8%

 

Fourth quarter GDP expanded a stronger than expected +6.9% from a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted 1.4% from the previous quarter. For the full year, GDP grew +6.1% in 2010, recovering from the +4.5% in 2009. Sector GDP details have not been released.

Inflation outweighs growth risks in 2011. Growth will remain resilient, with our GDP forecasts at +6.3% in 2011 and +6.1% in 2012. Buoyant domestic demand conditions and rising commodity prices should support growth.

Bank Indonesia noted in their latest Monetary Policy press release that 1Q 2011 GDP growth is “predicted to reach +6.4% on the strength of buoyant domestic demand and external sector improvements.” The government is forecasting GDP growth to be in the 6.0 – 6.5% range for 2011.

The government is considering the option of postponing the fuel subsidy rationalization schedule. The plan involves restricting the sale of subsidized fuel starting in April this year, starting from Greater Jakarta.

Probability of postponing or suspending the fuel subsidy rationalization plan has risen significantly. Stubbornly high inflation readings (at +7% in Jan 10) and fear of public protests (given developments in Egypt) will likely force the government to defer fuel subsidy cuts.

Fuel subsidy costs will increase significantly if the plan is deferred, especially given rising global oil prices. Energy subsidies were expected to amount to Rp136.6trn (US$15.2bn) or 11.1% of total government expenditure. Of this, fuel subsidy costs were forecasted at Rp95.9trn in the Budget (US$10.6bn), based on an oil price assumption of US$80/barrel. Budget deficit will likely widen to about 2% of GDP (from forecasted 1.8%) if global oil prices stays at current elevated levels.

We expect Bank Indonesia to follow through with a second rate hike at the next meeting in early March. Headline inflation will likely continue climbing (to 7.2% or 7.3%) for February. We expect a cumulative +100bps rate hike in 2011 (source : BOA)

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LABA BERSIH LPKR Rp. 525 M

PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) membukukan laba bersih per 31 Desember 2010 meningkat lebih dari Rp525 miliar. Dengan hasil tersebut, maka laba bersih per lembar saham perseroan menjadi Rp30,30.

more.....

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LABA BERSIH TIN NAIK 256%

PT Timah Tbk (TINS) mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 256 persen menjadi Rp802,4 miliar pada 2010 dibandingkan 2009 yang sebesar Rp313,75 miliar

more.....

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PERKIRAAN INDEKS IDX : 

Indeks diperkirakan bergerak antara 3390-3450

saatnya mulai melakukan pembelian selective karena Indeks diperkirakan akan menembus resistant 3400 dalam minggu ini.